MBS in Washington 2025: F-35 Deals, AI Partnerships & Saudi Soft Power
For official context, see the White House fact sheet summarizing the U.S.–Saudi arrangements.
Why this visit matters
This trip matters on three overlapping levels: strategic security, economic partnership, and global image. Each element feeds the others' energy, deals with fund diversification, defense ties cement alliances, and cultural partnerships reshape narratives. Analysts consider this a potential turning point in 21st-century Saudi–U.S. relations.
Strategic security: F-35s, major non-NATO ally status, and deterrence
One of the most striking announcements was the U.S. decision to open the door for F-35 stealth fighter sales to Saudi Arabia and to designate the kingdom as a “major non-NATO ally.” This integration enhances Riyadh’s role in U.S. defense logistics while providing advanced airborne capability. It shifts the military balance in the Gulf and raises questions about intelligence safeguards, technology controls, and regional responses.
For a detailed timeline, see Reuters coverage on the F-35 announcement.
Economic leverage: LNG, investments, and Vision 2030
Energy agreements were front and center. Saudi Aramco signed U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) arrangements with major partners such as Woodside Energy and Commonwealth LNG in Louisiana. These deals expand Aramco’s role beyond crude oil, supporting Vision 2030 diversification goals.
See Reuters’ report on Aramco LNG deals for full details.
Technology and AI cooperation
Riyadh and Washington announced memorandums to deepen AI cooperation, technical exchange, and supply-chain resilience for critical minerals and semiconductors. For more on the rare-earth angle, see our coverage on the rare-earth shortage and its implications. Access to advanced AI infrastructure is central to Saudi economic retooling.
Deal breakdown: defense, energy, nuclear, and investment
Defense: What the F-35 conversation means
An F-35 sale would be among the most consequential U.S. arms policy shifts in the Middle East in decades. It signals trust at an unusually high level, with complex transfer rules, training regimes, and long-term sustainment contracts. Oversight, export controls, and intelligence safeguards will be scrutinized closely.
Energy: LNG deals and their strategic logic
Saudi Aramco’s LNG accords with Woodside and the Commonwealth are designed to:
- Secure gas supply for Saudi and global markets.
- Diversify Aramco’s portfolio beyond crude.
- Use LNG investments as diplomatic leverage in energy diplomacy.
For a detailed account, refer to Reuters’ reporting.
Civil nuclear: long horizon, big conditions
The administration and Riyadh signed a framework for civilian nuclear cooperation. This allows Saudi Arabia to build reactors with U.S. technology under strict nonproliferation protocols. See related analysis on the nuclear arms landscape.
Investment pledges: headline numbers vs. execution
Riyadh’s investment pledges are reported as very large sums flowing into U.S. infrastructure, technology, and industry headlines easily. But execution depends on regulatory approvals, corporate due diligence, and geopolitical stability. See the White House summary.
Geopolitical ripple effects
Resetting relations after Khashoggi
The visit is a visible sign Washington and Riyadh are at that tempting to move beyond the Khashoggi fallout. Public optics arrival ceremony, state dinner, and bilateral meetings are signaling a diplomatic reset. Moving from optics to verifiable human-rights changes remains sensitive.
Rights reporting can be found in Fortune’s coverage.
Regional balance: Iran, Israel, and the broader Gulf
Security implications extend to Iran and the broader Gulf. Advanced aerial capabilities and closer integration with U.S. defense systems shift deterrence calculations. Riyadh’s potential conditional normalization with Israel is also a critical variable for regional stability.
Human rights and public scrutiny
Human rights organizations and lawmakers push back. Core concerns: strategic deals should not absolve unresolved human-rights abuses. Advocates demand leverage on civil liberties, press freedom, and political detainees.
The Cristiano Ronaldo angle: sport, soft power, and public diplomacy
Cristiano Ronaldo’s presence at the White House dinner and his wider role in Saudi football a deliberate soft-power moves:
- Attract global attention and normalize high-profile ties.
- Enhance the kingdom’s modernization narrative.
- Boost tourism, domestic sports investment, and brand association ahead of 2034 World Cup events.
Ronalthe do plays for Al-Nassr, linked to the Public Investment Fund (PIF). His global profile brings media, sponsorships, and narrative momentum beyond financial muscle. Coverage is available from ESPN.
Why a sports superstar matters in geopolitics
- Global attention: Moves headlines and shapes coverage tone;
- Commercial leverage: Monetizes sports assets and attracts sponsorship;
- Image engineering: Humanizes.s and normalizes political figures.
What to watch next: five scenarios that shape outcomes
The visit opens several plausible scenarios. Watch these levers closely:
Scenario 1 — Congress and the F-35
Congressional approval and oversight could limit or reshape the sale. A contested process would slow implementation.
Scenario 2 — LNG deals finalize and scale
If Aramco’s LNG agreements move from announcement to execution, expect capital flows and energy interdependence. Reuters tracks LNG progress.
Scenario 3 — A nuclear roadmap (slow and conditional)
Civil nuclear cooperation requires strict nonproliferation guarantees; multi-year implementation could cement long-term energy transition or spark diplomatic friction.
Scenario 4 — Technology and AI partnerships bear fruit
AI memorandums may lead to joint labs, data centers, and talent exchange, accelerating economic diversification.
Scenario 5 — Soft-power normalization continues
Figureheads like Ronaldo shift media narratives, provided governance and rights issues aren’t ignored.
Practical implications for readers, investors, and policymakers
For investors
Track formal contracts, regulatory approvals, and timelines. Pledge volumes do not equal cash flows; due diligence is essential.
For businesses
Companies in energy, defense supply chains, AI, and infrastructure must weigh opportunities against reputational and compliance risks. Export-control planning is essential.
For policymakers
Balance strategic gains with human-rights accountability. Transparency, conditionality, and oversight will determine the durability of this reset.
Expert perspective and fresh analysis
Three nuanced takeaways from analysts:
1. Transactional reset tests long-term trust
Deals and tech access buy short-term rapprochement. Trust requires transparency and consistent behavior.
2. Diversification is implementation-dependent
Vision 2030 goals need human-capital development, regulatory reforms, and industrial clustering. U.S. partnerships ease friction but do not guarantee success. See related tech and investment context.
3. Soft power accelerates reputational calculus
Ronaldo and similar figures normalize Saudi influence in public perception, especially among younger global audiences. Influence is fragile if rights concerns resurface.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Did the U.S. actually approve F-35 sales to Saudi Arabia?
A: Strong signals were sent, but formal sales require certifications, congressional notifications, and export controls. Reuters provides updates.
Q: Are the LNG deals signed and binding?
A: Agreements with Woodside and Commonwealth LNG were planned; final contracts and regulatory approvals determine execution. See Reuters.
Q: What is Ronaldo’s role?
A: He amplifies Saudi soft power, boosts Al-Nassr, and draws global attention. Read coverage.
Q: Should human rights concerns derail deals?
A: Activists and lawmakers advocate conditionality. Ideally, transparency and rights benchmarks are included. See Fortune summary.
Q: What timeline should people expect for these projects?
A: Defense and nuclear projects are multi-year; LNG projects may see commercial activity in 1–3 years; AI partnerships may yield results in 6–18 months.
Final Thoughts
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s 2025 Washington visit marks a pivotal moment in U.S.–Saudi relations, blending strategic defense agreements, LNG energy diplomacy, and AI and technology partnerships. The potential F-35 sale and designation of Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally could reshape regional geopolitical balance in the Gulf, while soft power initiatives like Cristiano Ronaldo’s presence amplify global perception and cultural influence.
Investors, businesses, and policymakers should focus on the execution of contracts, regulatory approvals, and long-term project sustainability rather than headline announcements. The success of Vision 2030 economic diversification hinges on human-capital development, regulatory reform, and consistent implementation of these agreements. Meanwhile, human rights and governance remain key considerations that could affect international credibility and strategic partnerships.
Ultimately, this visit underscores how energy, defense, technology, and cultural diplomacy intersect in modern geopolitics.